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The News Thread

Discussion in 'GMD Social Forum' started by Jimmy... Dead., Jun 19, 2014.

  1. TechnicalBarbarity

    TechnicalBarbarity -TheNightsBane-

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  2. Dak

    Dak mentat

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  3. The Ozzman

    The Ozzman Melted by feels

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  4. HamburgerBoy

    HamburgerBoy Active Member

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    Doesn't sound smart to me. He promised The Wall(tm) over and over and made it a top priority during the campaign, and then almost immediately dropped it once he was in office and had control of Congress. Republican turnout has been poor since then and a lot of Ann Coulter types have been riding his ass. I'm sure he'll see something of a spike as November nears, something which seems to happen to Republicans since at least the days of Nixon, but putting it off and continuing to dangle the carrot probably won't work as well as it did in 2016.
     
  5. Dak

    Dak mentat

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    It's brilliant because if it doesn't work in securing nowseats he has an out in 2020 on failing to follow through on it.
     
  6. HamburgerBoy

    HamburgerBoy Active Member

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    No he doesn't. It means that he failed his #1 promise with 2 years of a party majority in Congress and 4 years of sitting in the big seat. It's possible that he'll still win reelection due to a good economy and holding onto the Rust Belt, but I can't think of any cases where a president used failure to accomplish a goal as a positive. Political energy is fleeting in general as well; Obama saw a massive boost in the black vote in 2008, but half of those new voters sat out in 2012. Trump's new voters were proportionately much smaller than Obama's, and he's also facing an impending recapturing of the House. Even if this does inspire a red wave that holds onto the House by a slim majority, they need to double the currently projected Senate gain to overcome the filibuster. Will Trump vocally fight Congress for two years, including members of his own party, just to get the wall passed? Considering his current record of sending out a tweet when he sees something he doesn't like, doubtful. He'll say, "Great victory, huge successes, we won! I'll look into building that wall", and that will be about all.

    I'll most likely vote for Trump in 2020, I don't really care much about the wall to begin with, but he's still been a weak, ineffective leader, far from the strongman type that parts of his base were probably hoping for. Slightly bigger balls than Bill Clinton and the Bushes, smaller ones than probably every other post-Hoover president.
     
  7. Dak

    Dak mentat

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    I think you're projecting your thoughts about it onto a large swath of the country that won't/doesn't think like that.
     
  8. HamburgerBoy

    HamburgerBoy Active Member

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    I think you're unfamiliar with both a long historical precedent of political grandstanding right before elections in order to rile up support, as well as poor Republican turnout observed in recent special elections.

    What is the phrase you like to say a lot, something like "The best assumption to make from a trendline is a continuation of the trend"?
     
  9. CiG

    CiG Zen Arcade

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    Aren't a good deal of Brexiteers basically white trash from the north who are dealing with the worst of EU immigration policies? What a shock that a bunch of football hooligan families aren't fapping over abstract art. :rolleyes:

    It's almost like these people have no idea what working class culture is like.
     
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  10. CiG

    CiG Zen Arcade

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  11. Dak

    Dak mentat

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    Well it's true, but Trump already broke a US trend (although it seems that he is part of a more global trend). Now the question is: Is a new trend developing in this respect? I'm not saying this one aspect is going to grant the turnout desired by the GOP for the midterms, but it's not a bad play. The American voter has a relatively short memory. Are they going to remember in 1.5 years that The Wall was "abandoned" if the bill gets killed in Congress by Democrats?
     
  12. Black Orifice

    Black Orifice Vein-Marbled Tower

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    As an avid C-Span listener, I've heard quite a few "independent" voters call into Washington Journal to say they would not vote for Trump in 2020 if the wall wasn't built.
     
  13. Einherjar86

    Einherjar86 Active Member

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    Most "these people" have some idea. All it takes is walking through an art gallery and hearing someone say "I could do that" while looking at a Jackson Pollack painting. It's not some big mystery.

    That being said, yeah that study was almost entirely pointless.
     
  14. CiG

    CiG Zen Arcade

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    It really all depends on who is put forward to challenge Trump. People can virtue-signal all day long about "no wall, no vote" but I think it's pretty obvious that Trump voters and right-leaning independents will go for Trump if they throw another Hillary type at him or another Bernie type etc.

    It's just posturing IMO.
     
  15. HamburgerBoy

    HamburgerBoy Active Member

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    Is Trump going to spend every waking moment of 2019 and 2020 lambasting Dems for blocking the wall? If not, doesn't matter.

    Yep. When Trump signed the 2017 omnibus with wall money going to the Middle East, every Ann Coulter and Michael Savage and Tucker Carlson was pissed off. Doesn't matter how many MAGA fanboys stay committed, Trump's and the Republican party's margins for error are razor thin and losing just a bit of the hardcore conservative base will kill them.
     
  16. HamburgerBoy

    HamburgerBoy Active Member

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    The states that flipped for Trump did so with less than 1%. As long as Dems don't run someone like Kamala Harris (she probably won't survive the primary process to begin with), and as long as just a couple percent of 2016 Trump voters sit out (which would not be unusual based on the special elections so far), a 2020 defeat for Trump is highly plausible.
     
  17. tagradh

    tagradh Active Member

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    Old age and low levels of education are the biggest indicators of voting to leave, not location. Most leave voting areas have low levels of immigrants and, in the areas you're talking about, they're more likely to be Indian/Pakistani. One of the things lead Brexiteers keep floating as a positive is that we'll be able to bring in more highly skilled Common Wealth (so, Indian...) immigrants once we put a limit on the pesky Europeans.
     
  18. CiG

    CiG Zen Arcade

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    High skilled immigration doesn't impact the poor and working class as much as low skilled immigration does, which is why Eastern European immigration to the U.K. was such a core issue for Brexit, so sure I agree. I don't really see how you can say that low levels of education is an indicator for supporting leaving the EU but not location, as if the two don't significantly overlap lol.
     
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  19. Blurry_Dreams

    Blurry_Dreams Active Member

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    so what happened to the people who were trying to impeach Trump??
    what happened with that??
    did every one just kinda forget that he was supposedly doing impeach-worthy crimes??
     
  20. Dak

    Dak mentat

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    They are waiting on a blue "wave".
     

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