Building a new music industry?

We put up Verminous Horde as a free to download MP3 because it was endorsed by EA Games/Mythic/Games Workshop. We can't put it up for sale because it's GW's intellectual property, but we CAN benefit from the press.
 
So then what is your explanation for the huge sales increase between 1986-1994?
I wasn't aware I needed one. What does this time period have to do with our conversation?

Or said another way, why do you think sales today should be much higher than they were in 1986?
Well, right off the bat, a quarter century worth of population growth.

Just curious, what numbers are you using for the years you're referencing? SoundScan didn't start reporting such things until 1993.

More fodder for our discussion; here are some SoundScan numbers from 2010:
  • The total number of albums sold in 2010, 326.2 million, was the lowest since SoundScan began compiling the data in 1993.
  • Total album sales dropped off nearly 13% when measured against sales in 2009. That's the same rate of decrease sales saw last year over 2008.
  • Digital track sales grew just one percent. This category, which saw stratospheric growth in the early part of the last decade yet never made up for the decline in physical album sales, has essentially plateaued.
  • For the first time ever, overall music sales — that's the accounting of every unit of sales for each physical format (CD, LP, cassette) plus digital tracks and music videos — declined.
  • Nearly every genre faltered. Classical, jazz and Latin all saw 25% declines in sales. The only holdout was rap, which saw sales grow by 3%.
Why, in 2006-2008, a supposed golden-era of piracy, did video game revenue see nearly 20% yearly increases to reach all-time records each year?
I think this actually proves my point, rather than refutes it. Video games are far more difficult to pirate (bandwidth, technology, etc.). In addition, as technology has improved (BluRay, HD-DVD, HDTV, online game play, etc.), video game makers have been built a rapidly increasing audience, in the 25 - 45 year old demographic, in a way they never enjoyed before.
 
Is it a surprise that album sales have dropped in 2010 though? Most people don't really have much disposable income these days. I'd be surprised if the music business is the only entertainment industry suffering from low profits these days.
 
I'll take a stab at video games...both the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 were released in 2006. The price of games is also more expensive for those two consoles. Throw in the addition of the relatively new Downloadable Content (aka new revenue source) and the game industry had plenty of new (and effective) ways to make money.
 
http://www.clickitticket.com/MoneyMusicandPiracy.asp

music-infographicA.jpg
 
It seems like you're talking about this "technology race" as something that you would like to stop or turn back if possible. I don't think that would be the right idea.

On the contrary, it is quite the opposite. I for one, love the technological advances and use it to my advantage as a musician and as a consumer, Sadly, this is also something the earlier incarnation of my band would not do, and why there was a massive split in the sheets so to speak. However, this great blessing is also one for anyone with a decent pocket book, and if history has anything to say, not everyone is qualified, nor talented enough to have access to this. I know that is a fairly arrogant thing for me to say, but it’s just how I feel.

First, it's not like there is some kind of thoughtless battle going on where bands are locked into a competition to race ahead of each other, without realizing that the race will destroy them all.

No it’s not thoughtless at all, in fact, it’s had several years of thought put into it on many, many levels, the artists, the advertising agencies and the social network sites that hold them up and teach them how to get all up in your ass. My outlook email, as well as my “social network” in boxes are proof of this alone. Maybe that’s not a good place to gauge my speculation, but It’s enough evidence for me to draw my opinion on it that it’s flat out of control. If there wasn’t this thoughtless battle going on, I don’t think I would randomly get 20-30 messages/post/IM’s from artist with NO notability saying, “Vote or us!” “help us sign to roadrunner!” “join our mailing list!” “Check out our new song and download it on iTunes/Amazon!” and so on and so forth. NO reviews on webzines/magazine, NO interviews, NO real website, nothing… no notability. Just a MySpace/Reverbnation page with their MP3’s and they are pimping themselves out with notability like a whore on state street? That’s complete crap… If it came from any other source than the band themselves, I might take it seriously, but it rarely ever does. Case and point, if every metal band that has a song on iTunes had their “news” or “updates” posted on Blabbermouth, would Blabbermouth have any validity or notability themselves amongst metal fans or the industry in there respected genre? Probably not.

Rather, technology has advanced on its own, and that has simply unlocked an existing desire in artists to record their work for posterity.

I agree here to a certain degree, but once again, I don’t think monkeys should be allowed to play with a loaded guns, just because they (or someone else) feels have a right to do so. No good can come of that.

In this "free market" of music, I say the more output, the better. Put it all out there. Record it all. We don't need any gatekeepers on the front-end. Don't let anything stifle the creative process before it gets started. Instead, to shield us, the listeners, from the tsunami, we can rely on filtering on the back end.

I’m little mixed on this one – I agree, I don’t think anything in the creative process should be stifled, in fact I think anyone with a dream to write, record and perform music for others should certainly make it happen without being shackled. My issue is that there is no dam to hold back the water, and let it trickle out as it’s needed or wanted. We as the listeners are turning into that said dam, not the gate keepers as you mention obviously. Personally, as a music consumer, I don’t want to be the dam to hold back the flood LOL! I would rather leave that up to the gatekeepers, labels and A&R people. Now this may sound crazy coming from a musician who is constantly hearing the word “NO!” from these so-called gate keepers, but I am also a huge fan of music, and with that being said, I don’t WANT to surf, dig, scour or even brows through hundreds of thousands of artist to find that diamond in the rough, I just don’t have that kind of time or patients. This will sound callous, but up until recently, if a band isn’t singed or holding any sort of notability in the ranks, I don’t give them the time of day. Not because I don’t think they would be a great or even fantastic band that I would love and enjoy, it’s just there is…to…much…out…there…. And no quality control. I have to draw the line somewhere.

While I think there is very little room left for innovation in copy-protection, I think there are still opportunities out there for brilliant ideas in the music-discovery arena. Things like last.fm, Pandora, or iTunes Genius are all fighting for share in this increasingly-important market. In a field of unlimited choice, we need some help to make the search-space reasonable. In the past, we relied on record labels to limit the field. Now, the same technology that allowed the field to explode and also help save us from its suffocation. Crowd sourcing and analysis of our own music tastes can work as personalized record labels, telling us what we should check out and what we shouldn't even think about.

I certainly do agree here on most of your points; but again, as you mentioned, The labels limited and restrained the options, there was obvious pros and cons to that, and now we as the listeners are able to build our own label. But even then with the “if you like such-and-such band, you should listen to XXXX!” doesn’t present much help for me on a personal level if the bands have no real notability. The bottom line for me as an artist it that the more artists there are vying for fans on this level playing field or “free market” that’s been created and pushed as the wave of the future, the less pie there is to give, and the slivers getting sliced out are paper thin at this point. That’s not enough to supplement any kind of expense it costs to even create the music, let alone anything else.

Now, there are two different possibilities that might reveal themselves in an environment filled with perfect music-discovery services. If there really are a limited number of universally "good" artists, then the music-discovery services will cause that cream to rise to the top, and all other artists will quickly wither away, leaving that top segment able to make a living.

This is true, The “how” and “when” this will happen is anyone’s guess of course. However, because this issue hasn’t been resolved, might answer my question as to the “why” concerning the flood of music/artist as well.

On the other hand, if there really is no such thing as universally "good" artists, and our tastes are all very personal, then every artist out there will be a good fit for someone, and no single artist will make enough money to live off of. While the latter case may be bad news for artists looking to make money, it's still good news for listeners, because either way, we'll have no trouble finding music to listen to that we like
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This is also true. Sadly, this is exactly the road were all going down at the moment. Sure, it’s great for the listener, if said listener has the time and patients to dig through the massive pile of noise to find that one good melody. However, regardless of that, it still costs money to create the music, granted it’s penny’s over dollars with technology, but it still cost money. I’ve been saying this for a several years now, but if the well runs dry, then what? By this I mean when artist can’t even afford to make music independently, or not being able to break even from the expense, no matter how small the expenses might be due to the very reason you have state above… then what?

I know that’s a grim and nearly impossible situation, but seriously, if this were the case, it will be artists who have a disposable income or working capitol from a non-musical avenue, be it a day job, a sponsor or private investor, that will come out on top… not the talent. That could be a good thing, but also a very, very bad thing. Artists will spend money to “do what they want to satisfy their creative ego and for their small handful of fans” with no possibility to see a return or recoup the expenses. It’s already an expensive “hobby”, but that’s all it will be in the end or any new artist in the future, period.

Personally, I could care less If I made a dime from music, and by that I mean profit from it, I’d be content to break even or come close to that. I enjoy creating music and sharing it with like minded people. But it costs money to create it and promote it properly even on a small scale. With a mortgage and other financial responsibilities, mouths to feed in a family and a desire for them and myself to live a decent quality of life, this “free market” idea is a kick square in the nuts. I refuse to sacrifice all of these things just to have an expensive “hobby”. Some artist might do that in the future or do it already, but not me.
 
Personally, I could care less If I made a dime from music, and by that I mean profit from it, I’d be content to break even or come close to that. I enjoy creating music and sharing it with like minded people. But it costs money to create it and promote it properly even on a small scale. With a mortgage and other financial responsibilities, mouths to feed in a family and a desire for them and myself to live a decent quality of life, this “free market” idea is a kick square in the nuts. I refuse to sacrifice all of these things just to have an expensive “hobby”. Some artist might do that in the future or do it already, but not me.

I agree 100%...
 
sure, you're right and our label and the guy he had research it is totally wrong.

Yup. People make mistakes. No big deal. These guys were clearly confused by a web page, or put unwarranted trust behind a made-up number. Learn from the mistake, and move on. It's not like figuring out how many torrent downloads a band gets is something only a certified musicologist or 30-year industry veteran is qualified to do.

Pretty amazing that your personal view of things overrides the facts and the research done by someone who has a vested interest in what downloading is doing to his business.

If solid facts are what you seek, it's well-known that you shouldn't get them from someone who has a vested interest in the situation. This is why we try not to have pharmaceutical companies run clinical trials of their own drugs.

So. Halcyon Way.

last.fm listeners since the beginning of time: 444
Most-viewed YouTube video: 2017 views
Myspace profile views since 2004: 123036
Most-listened-to Myspace song: 13374 listens
Downloads from a single torrent site: 85,000

Yeah, one of these things definitely doesn't belong.

Only 0.5% of those downloaders are also last.fm members? More people downloaded one of your albums than have visited your Myspace site? Sorry, no.

This doesn't have anything to do with my "personal view of things". I'm fully aware that music is downloaded in huge volumes across the Internet. I'm just saying that all the other numbers indicate that Halcyon Way simply doesn't have the popularity to draw the attention of 85,000 downloaders.

Neil
 
I wasn't aware I needed one.

Geez, no, you don't *need* an explanation. It's still ok to ask someone's views when you're having a conversation though, right?

]What does this time period have to do with our conversation?

Discussed in my previous post. In short, that period saw a rise almost as dramatic as this period's fall. I figured that understanding the reasons behind one of those shifts could aid in understanding the reasons behind the other.

Well, right off the bat, a quarter century worth of population growth.

If we go to 2010, US population has increased 28% since 1986. If album shipments grew nicely with population over that period, we would have grown from 550 million albums in 1986 to 674 million in 2010. Instead, we had already made it past 675 million by 1989, screaming upwards past a billion by 1994. Between 1986-1994, population increased 8%, while album shipments increased 100%.

Certainly population growth plays a role in increasing sales volume (and conversely, it means a sales decrease can be worse on a per-capita basis than it nominally appears), but it's clear that in that period, population growth was only a minor part (8% I'd say!) of the explanation. The other 92% still needs some 'splainin.

Just curious, what numbers are you using for the years you're referencing? SoundScan didn't start reporting such things until 1993.

RIAA shipments, as shown by this chart:
Albums.gif


And yes, certainly the RIAA could have been playing games with their numbers for some reason, making the increase seem larger than it really was. But if that's part of your explanation, then you also have to accept that the recent decrease is *smaller* than the RIAA would have you believe.

[*]The total number of albums sold in 2010, 326.2 million, was the lowest since SoundScan began compiling the data in 1993.

On the other hand, the 1.2 billion digital tracks sold was a new record, and utterly blows away the number of "singles" that were being bought less than a decade ago. According to the RIAA, in 2004, the total number of "singles" shipped was 146 million (138.6 million digital tracks, 3.1 million CD singles, and 3.5 million vinyl singles). Going from 146 million to 1.2 billion in 6 years indicates the enormous shift the industry has undergone from an album-based business to a singles-based business. Again, when people can buy the one track they want for $1 instead of buying the one track they want and nine they don't for $15, they will, with enormous financial consequences for the industry.

[*]Digital track sales grew just one percent. This category, which saw stratospheric growth in the early part of the last decade yet never made up for the decline in physical album sales, has essentially plateaued.

One year of stagnant growth is a bit early to claim a plateau, but I bet that doesn't make the industry feel any better!

[*]For the first time ever, overall music sales — that's the accounting of every unit of sales for each physical format (CD, LP, cassette) plus digital tracks and music videos — declined.

Sort of a dumb stat since buying 10 digital single tracks counts for 10 while buying a digital 10-track album counts for 1. But I guess the industry was happy to count like that so at least they could show that one number (hint: not revenue!) was going up as the shift from albums to singles was underway.

[*]Nearly every genre faltered. Classical, jazz and Latin all saw 25% declines in sales. The only holdout was rap, which saw sales grow by 3%.[/LIST]

And the only reason rap bucked the trend was because of a single artist, Eminem. That's another indicator that stars (and the absence of such stars) can have a huge effect on the health of the industry.

video game makers have been built a rapidly increasing audience, in the 25 - 45 year old demographic, in a way they never enjoyed before.

So as audiences for a particular form of entertainment can be increased, can't they also be decreased? Especially as you say, since technology has made video games so awesome these days. Why buy music anymore if playing video games is way more fun? Especially if you've already spent your money on video games? Vaudeville was once one of the most popular forms of entertainment in the US. So were radio dramas. Those things have been dead for decades. Tastes in entertainment change, and old forms of entertainment die.

Again, not saying that piracy isn't one of (or even the greatest) effects, but don't any of these ideas at least crack open the door for you to think that, just maybe, there's a tiny chance that other factors can't be ruled out?

Neil
 
Haha in my defense, I posted that in the morning at my crankiest state of mind! I should refrain from doing that. I suck.

I got cranky too. I posted it as mostly jest, then your reaction made me want to defend it for some reason. Well, i did mean the part about professional artists serving customers. A business is a business, and I don't think you can attach the word 'art' to it and that makes it different somehow. But I probably should have found a way to put it that didn't make it sound like I thought artists should be personally serving me by writing songs about pigeons. Although I really would like to hear a song about a pigeon. Pigeons rule!
 
On the other hand, the 1.2 billion digital tracks sold was a new record, and utterly blows away the number of "singles" that were being bought less than a decade ago

This reinforces my point that the future will see less albums and more single songs. And to clarify, we are talking digital here. Obviously, pressing physical product isn't worth the cost for a single song unless it's a huge radio hit or something.
 
Geez, no, you don't *need* an explanation. It's still ok to ask someone's views when you're having a conversation though, right?
What I was trying to say was, your question seemed to come out of left field. I couldn't figure out what it was you were really asking.

Discussed in my previous post. In short, that period saw a rise almost as dramatic as this period's fall. I figured that understanding the reasons behind one of those shifts could aid in understanding the reasons behind the other.
And I would expect there's no correlation. As has been my contention all along, piracy is the primary cause of this decline. This type of piracy did not exist in 1986. Therefore it would be my position, that there is no correlation between the rise in the 80s and the fall during this past decade.

If we go to 2010, US population has increased 28% since 1986. If album shipments grew nicely with population over that period, we would have grown from 550 million albums in 1986 to 674 million in 2010. Instead, we had already made it past 675 million by 1989, screaming upwards past a billion by 1994. Between 1986-1994, population increased 8%, while album shipments increased 100%.

Certainly population growth plays a role in increasing sales volume (and conversely, it means a sales decrease can be worse on a per-capita basis than it nominally appears), but it's clear that in that period, population growth was only a minor part (8% I'd say!) of the explanation. The other 92% still needs some 'splainin.
As I see it, it's not incumbent on me to explain this. You're trying to establish a correlation between a spike in the 80s and a decline in this past decade. I'm saying no such correlation exists.

On the other hand, the 1.2 billion digital tracks sold was a new record, and utterly blows away the number of "singles" that were being bought less than a decade ago. According to the RIAA, in 2004, the total number of "singles" shipped was 146 million (138.6 million digital tracks, 3.1 million CD singles, and 3.5 million vinyl singles). Going from 146 million to 1.2 billion in 6 years indicates the enormous shift the industry has undergone from an album-based business to a singles-based business. Again, when people can buy the one track they want for $1 instead of buying the one track they want and nine they don't for $15, they will, with enormous financial consequences for the industry.
First, this is not a new shift for the industry, just one that re-aligned the retail market with the latest standard in fidelity. 10 years after the introduction of the 45', album sales fell below 25%. Second, it seems your assuming that the purchase of a single has replaced the purchase of a CD. How do you know, that in the absence of piracy, the sales of these singles would not represent new revenue for the industry, from people who couldn't afford or who didn't have access to the physical media Finally, the rise in the sale of singles, wouldn't explain the drop in sales in genres that have traditionally been album-oriented; Metal, Jazz, Blues, Classical, etc.

So as audiences for a particular form of entertainment can be increased, can't they also be decreased? Especially as you say, since technology has made video games so awesome these days. Why buy music anymore if playing video games is way more fun? Especially if you've already spent your money on video games?
Again, you're trying to establish a correlation where I don't believe one exists; that video game sales and CD sales, have an inverse relationship. Any correlation you could establish between these two markets would be anecdotal at best.

Vaudeville was once one of the most popular forms of entertainment in the US. So were radio dramas. Those things have been dead for decades. Tastes in entertainment change, and old forms of entertainment die.
Are youe suggesting that music sales are plummeting because people don't like music anymore?

Again, not saying that piracy isn't one of (or even the greatest) effects, but don't any of these ideas at least crack open the door for you to think that, just maybe, there's a tiny chance that other factors can't be ruled out?
Let's be clear; my position is, the number one reason for declining record sales is piracy. There could be any number of additional factors. However, I suspect the number-cruncher in you hates to the idea that the obvious answer may be the correct one. Such a reality would mitigate the need for a Perl script to mine the data and unearth the hidden truth. :loco:
 
You can download books for free, yet online book sellers are having record sales. Shops are closing, because people don't want to go to book stores as much and try to find the book they need (they add next-to-nothing, but cost more). Emusic is doing well.

For bands such as Halcyon Way, 20 years ago they'd be lucky to have ever been given the opportunity play their music. Today they can put out their record and have 10,000 people listen to it. Pretty impressive. Sure, they can't make a dime off of it, and will lose a lot of money doing so, but so what?

I'd estimate that 99% of band out there have about 6-months worth of talent (meaning that it takes about 6 months of practice to produce music of their quality). The other 1% find success in many ways, though not always financially.
 
For bands such as Halcyon Way, 20 years ago they'd be lucky to have ever been given the opportunity play their music. Today they can put out their record and have 10,000 people listen to it. Pretty impressive. Sure, they can't make a dime off of it, and will lose a lot of money doing so, but so what?

The same kinda runs true for Line Of Fire. I know that 20 years ago we'd probably have gotten zero chance to do what we've been able to do in the last 10 years (2 good sounding full length albums). We're a decent band, but there are TONS of decent bands out there who are good enough to make a record.

Without what we have now (internet, home recording), 90% of bands with music available at this moment would not have music available period.

You used to have to hump the clubs for a year or have a rich uncle to save enough money for 8 hours at the local demo studio to get a shitty recording of a couple songs...then another year humping that and winding up with a closet full of leftover cassette demos. Now, bands can pool their funds (or hit up the rich uncle) to get a Mac and buy (or torrent) a copy of Pro-Tools and they're off and running! It's a completely different game.

I see my records on blogs and torrents all the time...I'm just glad people like it enough to share with other people. Me trying to fight global downloading is like trying to soak up the ocean in a napkin. I just try to stay positive and be gracious and thankful to those who purchase my records and even thankful to those who don't buy it but say "I liked your song on MySpace"...
 
not everyone is qualified, nor talented enough to have access to this. I know that is a fairly arrogant thing for me to say, but it’s just how I feel.

Not everyone is talented enough to make a good watercolor painting, but everyone with a couple dollars has access to watercolors and some paper. This doesn't cause any problems. I am not overwhelmed by a flood of watercolor paintings. Let people do whatever they want.

No it’s not thoughtless at all, in fact, it’s had several years of thought put into it on many, many levels, the artists, the advertising agencies and the social network sites that hold them up and teach them how to get all up in your ass.

Oh, ok, I didn't realize that you were talking about the marketing aspects. To that, I simply say "you're doing it wrong". Marketers tell you nothing useful. Unsubscribe from all your mailing lists, shut down the wall of your Myspace profile, etc. Don't let them "push" to you. It's far more efficient for you to "pull" from them when you want to.

I agree here to a certain degree, but once again, I don’t think monkeys should be allowed to play with a loaded guns, just because they (or someone else) feels have a right to do so. No good can come of that.

Plenty good can come from it. The whole incredible black metal genre would probably not exist today if it were not for some monkeys in Norway running around with loaded guns. Plenty bad can come from it too, but since there are actually not any guns involved, and bad music can't hurt anyone, I have no problem letting the bad music flow in order to produce the rare gem that the gatekeepers of the past would have never allowed.

My issue is that there is no dam to hold back the water, and let it trickle out as it’s needed or wanted. We as the listeners are turning into that said dam, not the gate keepers as you mention obviously. Personally, as a music consumer, I don’t want to be the dam to hold back the flood LOL!

Yeah, you're totally standing in the wrong place. You aren't supposed to be in the middle of the river! You're supposed to stand safely on the shore and let the torrent fly by. Then, whenever *you* want to find some new music, you attach your music-discovery filter to a long rod, and dip it into the raging waters. As 10,000 bands fly by, the filter finds the best one among them and pops their album out of water and into your lap.

I would rather leave that up to the gatekeepers, labels and A&R people. Now this may sound crazy coming from a musician who is constantly hearing the word “NO!” from these so-called gate keepers, but I am also a huge fan of music, and with that being said, I don’t WANT to surf, dig, scour or even brows through hundreds of thousands of artist to find that diamond in the rough, I just don’t have that kind of time or patients.

Yes, doing it manually is futile. That's why we need automated tools. The tools aren't quite fully there yet, but they could be someday. An A&R dood has no idea what kind of music I like. Rather then relying on him to cut off the flood and let me see only what *he* thinks is good, I would much rather have direct access to the entire flood so I can use *my* personal filter on it.

It’s already an expensive “hobby”, but that’s all it will be in the end or any new artist in the future, period.

Luckily, from my point of view as a music fan, this is not a concern for me at all. Given the enormous flood of artists that we're talking about, if we get rid of 80% of them and keep only the 20% who are consciously willing to take a financial loss on their music, that 20% is still enormous enough to leave absolutely no chance of me running out of music to listen to.

On top of that, artists who care so much about their music that they're willing to lose money on it are the artists that I most want to hear anyway.

Neil
 
I got cranky too. I posted it as mostly jest, then your reaction made me want to defend it for some reason. Well, i did mean the part about professional artists serving customers. A business is a business, and I don't think you can attach the word 'art' to it and that makes it different somehow. But I probably should have found a way to put it that didn't make it sound like I thought artists should be personally serving me by writing songs about pigeons. Although I really would like to hear a song about a pigeon. Pigeons rule!

Haha cool, I guess we both trolled eachother then unintentionally lol.


Anyways, I'm not a HUGE fan of the idea that bands are a business. Bands can be an LLC so that they can establish how much money each member gets when the band starts to actually make money, but a band is not a business. A business sells a product. Bands do not have to sell product. In fact, there are cover bands who make a living doing covers with no physical product whatsoever. There are also backing bands (like Leprous as the backing band for Ihsahn) who don't sell a product either. You can make two arguments against this, 1) that technically the product is the live show, and 2), those are performance artists and not recording artists. Fair enough, but still, when a band signs a record deal, the band does not own the rights to that recorded product. The label does. They (generally -- this can differ from deal to deal) pay for the recordings and takes the rights to the recorded product. It is their job and business to sell the product and make money off of it.

But saying a band is a business is like saying a photographer is a business. The photographer might sell his or her photos for money, but that is only to fund his art. Same with bands. Bands DO business, in order to continue funding their art, but they themselves are not businesses.
 
What I was trying to say was, your question seemed to come out of left field.

So what you're saying is that you don't memorize every word of my posts? :cry:

As I see it, it's not incumbent on me to explain this. You're trying to establish a correlation between a spike in the 80s and a decline in this past decade. I'm saying no such correlation exists.

This sounds almost like you've decided on a conclusion, and then will find (or ignore) facts required to support that conclusion. Theories that can model and explain an entire system are generally much more valuable and correct than theories that explain only a subset of the system and fall apart on other subsets. The most trustworthy theory would be one that can explain ALL the dramatic shifts in music sales over time, not just the most recent one. Piracy will almost surely be one of the factors in the equation that determines the shape of the curve in the graph I posted. But if you don't even consider what other factors caused the curve to be shaped like it is, it seems impossible to determine the weighting to give the piracy factor in the equation.

Second, it seems your assuming that the purchase of a single has replaced the purchase of a CD. How do you know, that in the absence of piracy, the sales of these singles would not represent new revenue for the industry, from people who couldn't afford or who didn't have access to the physical media

Good point, I do not know that. It's probably some of both. Given the scale of the number, I think it's safe to assume that at least some of the effect of "unbundling" is negative for the industry (people buying singles when they would have bought albums before), and some is probably positive (new revenue from people who wouldn't have bought at all). I assume that when balanced out, the net effect is negative because revenue has declined while unit sales have gone up.

Finally, the rise in the sale of singles, wouldn't explain the drop in sales in genres that have traditionally been album-oriented; Metal, Jazz, Blues, Classical, etc.

Another good point. My explanation for this one is that when people get old, they tend to die, and dead people stop buying music. :lol:

Again, you're trying to establish a correlation where I don't believe one exists; that video game sales and CD sales, have an inverse relationship. Any correlation you could establish between these two markets would be anecdotal at best.

I'm not saying that the relationship between music revenue and video game revenue is directly inverse, but I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say there is *some* relationship. Do you dispute the idea that household entertainment budgets generally have at least soft limits, and that an increase in dollars directed to one form results in a decrease in dollars to another form? Additionally, there are harder temporal limits, where increased time spent enjoying one form of entertainment must result in decreased time with another form of entertainment.

Are youe suggesting that music sales are plummeting because people don't like music anymore?

Yes, I'm saying it's certainly a possible contributor. And not that they don't like music anymore, but they they just like other forms of entertainment more. Really, while we've been selling pre-recorded music for profit for a century now, that's a mere blink-of-the-eye against the thousands of years that music has been a part of human culture. So it wouldn't be a shock to find that it was just a fad. Do you dispute the idea that tastes in entertainment can change?

However, I suspect the number-cruncher in you hates to the idea that the obvious answer may be the correct one.

No, it's the skeptic in me that recognizes the obvious answer is sometimes the incorrect one. It's obvious that the sun goes around the Earth, that ulcers are caused by stress, and that earthquakes are caused by angry gods. But luckily some smart people looked beyond the obvious, and now we can have man-made satellites tell us what the weather is going to be like, cure ulcers with an antibiotic, and build carefully near fault lines. All much better solutions to those problems than reading the Old Farmer's Almanac to predict the weather, quitting your job to reduce stress, or sacrificing virgins to prevent earthquakes.

So if you're going to propose DRM as a solution to the music industry's decreasing revenue, it seems only prudent to seriously consider alternative explanations. Because the worst thing would be to implement a DRM system and discover that, since you didn't fully understand the source of the problem, the "solution" actually hurts more than it helps.

Neil